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Match Type

Classify 2026 NBA playoff games by Polymarket odds movement patterns.

Dominant

The final winner establishes a clear probability advantage early or during the middle of the game and maintains meaningful control for most of the game.

"Useful for trend-following, add-on entries, low-volatility holds, and early profit-taking."

Logic: (A) Winner >60% for ≥70% of points, ≤1 lead change, loser peak <60%. (B) Winner reaches 80% before 50% progress, stays above 85% for ≥35% of points, max drawdown after 80% ≤25%.

Late Decision

Both teams remain close in the odds market for most of the game, and the final winner only separates clearly in the late stage.

"Useful for studying late-game entry windows and whether the market underprices clutch or closing-stage advantages."

Logic: Probability stays within 40–60% for ≥55% of points. Final decisive break (winner stays above 70%) at game progress ≥75%.

Close Tug-of-War

The two teams trade small leads several times, but neither side creates an extreme probability advantage.

"Useful for studying range trading, short-term entries/exits, and market overreactions."

Logic: ≥2 lead changes. 70%+ of points within 30–70% range. 0 major swings.

Single Reversal

One side had a major probability advantage, but the other side completed one major reversal and won. The original favored side ultimately lost.

"Useful for studying reversal entries, stop-loss rules, extreme probability entry points, and market overconfidence."

Logic: Final loser peak ≥75%. Final winner min ≤25%. Exactly 1 major swing.

Multiple Reversals

The game has two or more major probability reversals. Both sides may have been strongly favored at different moments.

"Highest-value category for studying high-volatility live trading, multiple entry/exit windows, and automated strategy stress testing."

Logic: ≥2 major swings (any side crossing 75%↔25%).

Late Collapse

A team still had a very high win probability in the final stage of the game but ultimately lost.

"Very important for studying late-game overconfidence, tail-risk, reverse entries, and failed stop-loss behavior."

Logic: Final loser had probability ≥80% after 75% game progress, then ultimately lost. Checked before Single Reversal.

False Comeback

The final winner built a large advantage, the opponent made a meaningful comeback and narrowed the odds, but the opponent never truly completed a major reversal.

"Useful for studying panic pullbacks and second-entry opportunities on the stronger side."

Logic: Winner peak ≥85%, then drops to 55–65% range. Opponent never leads above 55% after that. 0 major swings. Checked before Dominant.

Low Signal

The odds data is insufficient, noisy, incomplete, or does not fit any clear pattern above.

"Mostly used for exclusion from priority analysis."

Logic: Fewer than 20 valid points, missing ratio >35%, winner undetermined, or no other category matches.

Total
games
Dominant
—%
Late Dec.
—%
Tug-of-War
—%
Single Rev.
—%
Multi Rev.
—%
Late Collapse
—%
False CB
—%
Low Signal
—%
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